Poker is a game that is constantly evolving. Unless you constantly adjust your game, you can not remain profitable. The easiest thing to do is have a nice win streak and convince yourself you are now a great player. Then you can blaim your eventual losing streak to just bad luck.
Some people, on various forums, do not appreciate some of the comments I make when I see them post a bad beat story. For example, someone will play something like J8 off from middle position and flop two pair. They will then go all in if someone atacks the pot, all because they feel the player is married to an overpair or TPTK. Then this other player ends up with the best hand by the river. Playing the J8 off from middle position was the problem to start with, but they will never admit it. And they never post when they misread the other hand, and lost to a flopped set or straight, and so on.
Getting all your money in on the flop, just because you think you have the best hand, is not a profitable way to play. What happend to starting with quality cards from early and middle positions, for the most part? What about building a pot, then reading your opponents. If you cannot fold an overpair, 2 pair, a set, no matter what, then you are not a good oker player. And once people see you cannot fold those hands, they will adjust your bank roll down to nothing just waiting to trap in your bad readable habits.
Adjust your game constantly, with the goal to protect your money. You have to always be trying to maintain minimum loses and/or make the maximum profit possible every hand.
Saturday, July 28, 2007
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
A Little Birdie Told Me.
If you cannot trust your inner voice, then you need to be very careful about playing poker for money. As you grow in skill, your inner voice should become more and more a part of your game.
That's the little voice that tells you someone has a small straight though you haven't caught on to it yet. The same voice that tells you someone has trips, so your over pair or second pair has no chance right now. It is also the same voice that tells you someone just bet a chase so maybe calling for 20x the pot is just not worth it with top pair right now.
My little voice helps me stick to the few rules I know work for me. Listening to it I can triple up on a cash table. Then I can turn the voice off, decide to ignore it a little bit, and blow 1/2 my winnings before I let it back in.
Learning to be cautious is not a bad thing. Recognizing the benefits of listening to your self is priceless :)
That's the little voice that tells you someone has a small straight though you haven't caught on to it yet. The same voice that tells you someone has trips, so your over pair or second pair has no chance right now. It is also the same voice that tells you someone just bet a chase so maybe calling for 20x the pot is just not worth it with top pair right now.
My little voice helps me stick to the few rules I know work for me. Listening to it I can triple up on a cash table. Then I can turn the voice off, decide to ignore it a little bit, and blow 1/2 my winnings before I let it back in.
Learning to be cautious is not a bad thing. Recognizing the benefits of listening to your self is priceless :)
Sunday, July 1, 2007
Expected Value and Implied Odds
A lot of people throw around terms like Expected Value (EV) and Implied Odds. I think this is great when it comes to playing high stakes poker. Poker is more than odds and EV. The lower the stakes you are playing, the less likely odds or EV are even considered part of the game.
This article applies to playing No Limit HoldEm (NLHE). On a table with a $4 buy-in, you will see players with hands like AK-off push $3 all-in post flop. Or against a 50-cent pot, after they missed the flop, also make the same push. You might sit there with a pocket pair or top pair weak kicker. If you used implied odds you would have to fold all day long. EV may be a better way to justify your call, if you look at calling $3 is getting you even money.
This is why I feel all the supposed odds calculators are meaningless. It comes down to what you feel and/or think the other player has. I can see where implied odds may tell me if is it worth investing in chasing down a hand. Yet, on a $4 table, I see no problem calling a few extra dollars just to see what happens.
I see no problem calling a 50-cent preflop raise even if it is 5x the BB, so what. That is the logic you are going against on most of the tables all the way up to $1 BB ($100 max buy-in) and maybe even higher.
Tournament play is a totally different monster. But again, implied odds just have to be thrown out the door most of the time. I do love when someone bets the flop weakly and lets you chase your winning hand down on the cheap, then they attack the river after they let you hit the better hand. That's when they let implied odds work against them. Compared to the opposite situation where you may flop a set and you bet aggressively yet someone calls or worse, goes all-in with a chase. Implied odds tell you to fold here, are you going to fold the best hand every time someone over bets the pot?
My main reason for this post is all the complaints I see in forums about bad beats. The complainer cries about how bad the call was that beat them. They never analyze how potentially bad their play was though. Top pair top kicker (TPTK) falls all day long to flopped sets, straights, and so on. Yet there they are posting their bad beat stories instead of analyzing all the times they misplayed their hands. Bad players know nothing of implied odds or EV that is why it is best to play the players, not the cards.
This article applies to playing No Limit HoldEm (NLHE). On a table with a $4 buy-in, you will see players with hands like AK-off push $3 all-in post flop. Or against a 50-cent pot, after they missed the flop, also make the same push. You might sit there with a pocket pair or top pair weak kicker. If you used implied odds you would have to fold all day long. EV may be a better way to justify your call, if you look at calling $3 is getting you even money.
This is why I feel all the supposed odds calculators are meaningless. It comes down to what you feel and/or think the other player has. I can see where implied odds may tell me if is it worth investing in chasing down a hand. Yet, on a $4 table, I see no problem calling a few extra dollars just to see what happens.
I see no problem calling a 50-cent preflop raise even if it is 5x the BB, so what. That is the logic you are going against on most of the tables all the way up to $1 BB ($100 max buy-in) and maybe even higher.
Tournament play is a totally different monster. But again, implied odds just have to be thrown out the door most of the time. I do love when someone bets the flop weakly and lets you chase your winning hand down on the cheap, then they attack the river after they let you hit the better hand. That's when they let implied odds work against them. Compared to the opposite situation where you may flop a set and you bet aggressively yet someone calls or worse, goes all-in with a chase. Implied odds tell you to fold here, are you going to fold the best hand every time someone over bets the pot?
My main reason for this post is all the complaints I see in forums about bad beats. The complainer cries about how bad the call was that beat them. They never analyze how potentially bad their play was though. Top pair top kicker (TPTK) falls all day long to flopped sets, straights, and so on. Yet there they are posting their bad beat stories instead of analyzing all the times they misplayed their hands. Bad players know nothing of implied odds or EV that is why it is best to play the players, not the cards.
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