With online poker, sometimes it is best to move on after you have reached your goal at a table. Even if the table is full of ATM's, why give them a shot at winning all their losses back? Sometimes I have reached my goal quickly, thus in my mind I tell myself to stay and keep taking advantage of the ATM's. Then before I know it I have lost 1/2 my winnings back. If I had listened to my goal, I would have moved on to a new table and banked my winnings.
When the flop just makes you flinch, learn to not trap yourself. Listen to your instincts. I will not chase a straight into a flush chase for example, or the bottom end of a straight into the top (like holding 9 10 on a J Q x flop). Why hit the straight (or bottom of the straight) and have someone either push all in or bet 1/2 the pot? You are calling 1/2 the pot, and most bad players are calling the all in hoping it was a bluff or bad bet.
I just ran through a streak that all but crippled the few dollars I had left online. For example, I turned a Ace high flush then the river pairs the board, yep the other player had 2 pair and hit their FH. Within 10 hands I run into another FH, and within 2 more rounds quads. The day before, on a different site, I ran into trips about 4 times in an hour. Each time I had a high pair and the other player called my preflop raises. One time the other player called with something like 6 10 suited and the board flopped a pair of sixes. The other times my monsters were cracked by low pairs. In cash games I love to see the flop with a pocket pair. And I guess I ctach a set the usual 12% or so of the time. So to see other players hitting their sets left and right, against me, was a real let down.
Playing online can be real frustrating. The game is fast, and so easy to participate in.
I plan to lay low for a while and play some live poker in September.
Saturday, August 11, 2007
Friday, August 3, 2007
What are the Odds!?!
Slow playing a great flop is not always the right move. I used to think it was for certain hands. Like flopping a flush holding the Ace/x suited for example. Problem is, someone with two-pair or a set may be lurking. They will call a value bet, may even attack the pot hoping no one has the flush yet, trying to get rid of any chasers. Then comes flopping a straight, just to see an outer outer flush or FH take over, maybe even someone connect to a higher straight.
The odds of something happening are not affected by previous results. Just like flipping coins, just because a coin lands on tails does not mean the odds it lands on tails the next time have changed. If someone cracks your pocket Aces, that does not mean the next 9 times you hold them they can not lose.
Start looking at the odds that the quality of the players affect. For example, at a loose table the odds are several players are calling raised pots pre-flop. This means the odds are your pocket cards need to improve to stay ahead. The odds are that someone is going to ride the pot. The odds are someone is going to bluff the river and represent. On a tight table, the odds are you have to mask your strong hands to make a profit. The odds are you will have to fold more often with just TPTK and wait for a better hand to make a profit.
In either case, the odds I am looking at have to do with the players, not just my cards. For example, on a tight table you may be able to represent an Ace on the flop and get players with botom or middle pairs to fold. On a loose table, someone with any flopped pair is going to call you down to the river, and even a river bet if the pot is big enough. You cannot bluff bad players, so play the players and not your cards all the time.
The reverse is simple, make those bad players pay off. I flopped quads and knew a bad player, on the button, would bet the pot if everyone checked. They bet, and I called in late position with 2 other callers. The turn was great, someone had to have hit a straight and possibly a flush. I checked and the button checked. I bet 1/2 the pot on the river, the button raised, the other 2 players folded. I re-raised back, and amazingly he pushes all in. He had a weak flush, two middle cards, never even had a straight flush draw to fall back on. Nine out of ten times hands like that do not pay off.
The odds of something happening are not affected by previous results. Just like flipping coins, just because a coin lands on tails does not mean the odds it lands on tails the next time have changed. If someone cracks your pocket Aces, that does not mean the next 9 times you hold them they can not lose.
Start looking at the odds that the quality of the players affect. For example, at a loose table the odds are several players are calling raised pots pre-flop. This means the odds are your pocket cards need to improve to stay ahead. The odds are that someone is going to ride the pot. The odds are someone is going to bluff the river and represent. On a tight table, the odds are you have to mask your strong hands to make a profit. The odds are you will have to fold more often with just TPTK and wait for a better hand to make a profit.
In either case, the odds I am looking at have to do with the players, not just my cards. For example, on a tight table you may be able to represent an Ace on the flop and get players with botom or middle pairs to fold. On a loose table, someone with any flopped pair is going to call you down to the river, and even a river bet if the pot is big enough. You cannot bluff bad players, so play the players and not your cards all the time.
The reverse is simple, make those bad players pay off. I flopped quads and knew a bad player, on the button, would bet the pot if everyone checked. They bet, and I called in late position with 2 other callers. The turn was great, someone had to have hit a straight and possibly a flush. I checked and the button checked. I bet 1/2 the pot on the river, the button raised, the other 2 players folded. I re-raised back, and amazingly he pushes all in. He had a weak flush, two middle cards, never even had a straight flush draw to fall back on. Nine out of ten times hands like that do not pay off.
Saturday, July 28, 2007
Adjust or be adjusted.
Poker is a game that is constantly evolving. Unless you constantly adjust your game, you can not remain profitable. The easiest thing to do is have a nice win streak and convince yourself you are now a great player. Then you can blaim your eventual losing streak to just bad luck.
Some people, on various forums, do not appreciate some of the comments I make when I see them post a bad beat story. For example, someone will play something like J8 off from middle position and flop two pair. They will then go all in if someone atacks the pot, all because they feel the player is married to an overpair or TPTK. Then this other player ends up with the best hand by the river. Playing the J8 off from middle position was the problem to start with, but they will never admit it. And they never post when they misread the other hand, and lost to a flopped set or straight, and so on.
Getting all your money in on the flop, just because you think you have the best hand, is not a profitable way to play. What happend to starting with quality cards from early and middle positions, for the most part? What about building a pot, then reading your opponents. If you cannot fold an overpair, 2 pair, a set, no matter what, then you are not a good oker player. And once people see you cannot fold those hands, they will adjust your bank roll down to nothing just waiting to trap in your bad readable habits.
Adjust your game constantly, with the goal to protect your money. You have to always be trying to maintain minimum loses and/or make the maximum profit possible every hand.
Some people, on various forums, do not appreciate some of the comments I make when I see them post a bad beat story. For example, someone will play something like J8 off from middle position and flop two pair. They will then go all in if someone atacks the pot, all because they feel the player is married to an overpair or TPTK. Then this other player ends up with the best hand by the river. Playing the J8 off from middle position was the problem to start with, but they will never admit it. And they never post when they misread the other hand, and lost to a flopped set or straight, and so on.
Getting all your money in on the flop, just because you think you have the best hand, is not a profitable way to play. What happend to starting with quality cards from early and middle positions, for the most part? What about building a pot, then reading your opponents. If you cannot fold an overpair, 2 pair, a set, no matter what, then you are not a good oker player. And once people see you cannot fold those hands, they will adjust your bank roll down to nothing just waiting to trap in your bad readable habits.
Adjust your game constantly, with the goal to protect your money. You have to always be trying to maintain minimum loses and/or make the maximum profit possible every hand.
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
A Little Birdie Told Me.
If you cannot trust your inner voice, then you need to be very careful about playing poker for money. As you grow in skill, your inner voice should become more and more a part of your game.
That's the little voice that tells you someone has a small straight though you haven't caught on to it yet. The same voice that tells you someone has trips, so your over pair or second pair has no chance right now. It is also the same voice that tells you someone just bet a chase so maybe calling for 20x the pot is just not worth it with top pair right now.
My little voice helps me stick to the few rules I know work for me. Listening to it I can triple up on a cash table. Then I can turn the voice off, decide to ignore it a little bit, and blow 1/2 my winnings before I let it back in.
Learning to be cautious is not a bad thing. Recognizing the benefits of listening to your self is priceless :)
That's the little voice that tells you someone has a small straight though you haven't caught on to it yet. The same voice that tells you someone has trips, so your over pair or second pair has no chance right now. It is also the same voice that tells you someone just bet a chase so maybe calling for 20x the pot is just not worth it with top pair right now.
My little voice helps me stick to the few rules I know work for me. Listening to it I can triple up on a cash table. Then I can turn the voice off, decide to ignore it a little bit, and blow 1/2 my winnings before I let it back in.
Learning to be cautious is not a bad thing. Recognizing the benefits of listening to your self is priceless :)
Sunday, July 1, 2007
Expected Value and Implied Odds
A lot of people throw around terms like Expected Value (EV) and Implied Odds. I think this is great when it comes to playing high stakes poker. Poker is more than odds and EV. The lower the stakes you are playing, the less likely odds or EV are even considered part of the game.
This article applies to playing No Limit HoldEm (NLHE). On a table with a $4 buy-in, you will see players with hands like AK-off push $3 all-in post flop. Or against a 50-cent pot, after they missed the flop, also make the same push. You might sit there with a pocket pair or top pair weak kicker. If you used implied odds you would have to fold all day long. EV may be a better way to justify your call, if you look at calling $3 is getting you even money.
This is why I feel all the supposed odds calculators are meaningless. It comes down to what you feel and/or think the other player has. I can see where implied odds may tell me if is it worth investing in chasing down a hand. Yet, on a $4 table, I see no problem calling a few extra dollars just to see what happens.
I see no problem calling a 50-cent preflop raise even if it is 5x the BB, so what. That is the logic you are going against on most of the tables all the way up to $1 BB ($100 max buy-in) and maybe even higher.
Tournament play is a totally different monster. But again, implied odds just have to be thrown out the door most of the time. I do love when someone bets the flop weakly and lets you chase your winning hand down on the cheap, then they attack the river after they let you hit the better hand. That's when they let implied odds work against them. Compared to the opposite situation where you may flop a set and you bet aggressively yet someone calls or worse, goes all-in with a chase. Implied odds tell you to fold here, are you going to fold the best hand every time someone over bets the pot?
My main reason for this post is all the complaints I see in forums about bad beats. The complainer cries about how bad the call was that beat them. They never analyze how potentially bad their play was though. Top pair top kicker (TPTK) falls all day long to flopped sets, straights, and so on. Yet there they are posting their bad beat stories instead of analyzing all the times they misplayed their hands. Bad players know nothing of implied odds or EV that is why it is best to play the players, not the cards.
This article applies to playing No Limit HoldEm (NLHE). On a table with a $4 buy-in, you will see players with hands like AK-off push $3 all-in post flop. Or against a 50-cent pot, after they missed the flop, also make the same push. You might sit there with a pocket pair or top pair weak kicker. If you used implied odds you would have to fold all day long. EV may be a better way to justify your call, if you look at calling $3 is getting you even money.
This is why I feel all the supposed odds calculators are meaningless. It comes down to what you feel and/or think the other player has. I can see where implied odds may tell me if is it worth investing in chasing down a hand. Yet, on a $4 table, I see no problem calling a few extra dollars just to see what happens.
I see no problem calling a 50-cent preflop raise even if it is 5x the BB, so what. That is the logic you are going against on most of the tables all the way up to $1 BB ($100 max buy-in) and maybe even higher.
Tournament play is a totally different monster. But again, implied odds just have to be thrown out the door most of the time. I do love when someone bets the flop weakly and lets you chase your winning hand down on the cheap, then they attack the river after they let you hit the better hand. That's when they let implied odds work against them. Compared to the opposite situation where you may flop a set and you bet aggressively yet someone calls or worse, goes all-in with a chase. Implied odds tell you to fold here, are you going to fold the best hand every time someone over bets the pot?
My main reason for this post is all the complaints I see in forums about bad beats. The complainer cries about how bad the call was that beat them. They never analyze how potentially bad their play was though. Top pair top kicker (TPTK) falls all day long to flopped sets, straights, and so on. Yet there they are posting their bad beat stories instead of analyzing all the times they misplayed their hands. Bad players know nothing of implied odds or EV that is why it is best to play the players, not the cards.
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Playing Over Your Head.
I am learning to appreciate the term "play the players, not the cards." Most of my big loses come from playing the cards. My biggest wins have come from playing the players.
For me, playing over my head seems to come down to reading the players at the table badly. If you know a bad player will call your bluffs, don't bluff them. Use that knowledge to your advantage, make them pay you off when you do have them dominated. Wait to get good reads on the players before making any moves. Start with tests, like will someone fold one pair even if the board shows an obvious possible flush.
Another area to be careful, about playing over your head, is the stakes. If you are protecting your money, other players will read that in your play. I am not talking about smart poker, I am talking about fearful poker. Afraid to call a big bet just in case you were wrong, the bets you would normally call or attack. Afraid to protect your hand, hands you would normally protect.
If you are uncomfortable at a table, go find another one.
For me, playing over my head seems to come down to reading the players at the table badly. If you know a bad player will call your bluffs, don't bluff them. Use that knowledge to your advantage, make them pay you off when you do have them dominated. Wait to get good reads on the players before making any moves. Start with tests, like will someone fold one pair even if the board shows an obvious possible flush.
Another area to be careful, about playing over your head, is the stakes. If you are protecting your money, other players will read that in your play. I am not talking about smart poker, I am talking about fearful poker. Afraid to call a big bet just in case you were wrong, the bets you would normally call or attack. Afraid to protect your hand, hands you would normally protect.
If you are uncomfortable at a table, go find another one.
Sunday, June 17, 2007
Walking a Mile in Their Shoes.
Sometimes you sit there with a great hand and wonder why other players are so connected to their hands. For example, you flop a set and someone with AK off has TPTK (top pair top kicker). They wont fold and 8 out of 10 times you take them for a big pot. Insert your example.
The there are those days that there you sit with TPTK and totally read the hand incorrectly. You feel connected, and pay them off. Usually you know to just fold, you understand they are betting to protect their big flop. But sometimes you convince yourself they are betting a chase, or a weak connection, and pay them off.
It is hard to consistently be the one on the winning side of these situation's. The more risks you take, the tighter you play, the easier it is sometimes to fall into your own trap.
When you are in for 8x the BB post flop, it doesn't actually hurt to fold to a big post flop bet if all you have is top pair. An agressive bluffer just gains confidence when they get you to lay your hand down. With patience they will pay you off, a lot more than they took from you. On the other hand, a good tight player will bet the same way to protect their lead against dangerous flops.
Playing quality cards helps you to make better decisions though. Like flopping a weak flush, this can leave you just calling big bets and you end up allowing someone to hit a FH. Where if you have the nut flush you can battle back post flop, maybe stop them from chasing - if nothing else, get your money in before they crack you and not end up making a bad call after the river.
The there are those days that there you sit with TPTK and totally read the hand incorrectly. You feel connected, and pay them off. Usually you know to just fold, you understand they are betting to protect their big flop. But sometimes you convince yourself they are betting a chase, or a weak connection, and pay them off.
It is hard to consistently be the one on the winning side of these situation's. The more risks you take, the tighter you play, the easier it is sometimes to fall into your own trap.
When you are in for 8x the BB post flop, it doesn't actually hurt to fold to a big post flop bet if all you have is top pair. An agressive bluffer just gains confidence when they get you to lay your hand down. With patience they will pay you off, a lot more than they took from you. On the other hand, a good tight player will bet the same way to protect their lead against dangerous flops.
Playing quality cards helps you to make better decisions though. Like flopping a weak flush, this can leave you just calling big bets and you end up allowing someone to hit a FH. Where if you have the nut flush you can battle back post flop, maybe stop them from chasing - if nothing else, get your money in before they crack you and not end up making a bad call after the river.
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