I do not believe that you can realistically measure variance in your poker play. You can track it, but can you really measure it? Tracking systems do not take emotional factors into place. They also do not distinguish between your bad decisions verus good ones, bad beats you put on others versus being put on you.
A good example is pocket Aces. Let's say you find it hard to fold them post flop. A tight passive (TP) player loses a lot with pocket Aces, or does not maximize thier winnings. A good tight agressive (TAG) player will lose less with them, and maximize their winnings. The TP player will not protect their hand post flop and end up in many situations with multiple players seeing the flop and cracking Aces. The TAG player will isolate and defend their Aces, possibly going all-in preflop based on their read of the table.
Either style of play, when the flop hits, some players will know when to muck their Aces while most will play them no matter what is going on. This is where variance can not tell you much. Since most players mix their game up, a tracker can not compensate for an individual's variance in play.
Another factor is the environment. Someone playing at online micro levels may have developed a style of play that at live cash levels is nothing but losing play. You get caught up in the fact that online you can limit your loses to $10, $25, $50 etc.. Then you move up online or live and there you sit with $300 in front of you. Or a live $1/$2 player moves up to $3/$6 and has 3x their normal buy-in to deal with.
This brings me to odds. On micro tables odds are meaningless. Let's be realistic here, you have $25 in front of you. You bet or call $2 to see a flop with pocket Queens and you hit a set on the flop. There s a flush chase out there, a possible straight as well could already have hit. But you hit a set, and you value bet it. Someone raises, heck a player in the middle smooth calls. At this point, do you muck when on the turn someone pushes all in for 3x the pot? Probably not, you do not have a lot to risk. But lets go to a $300 buy-in and you put $15 into the pot pre-flop. Next thing you know someone on the turn is forcing you all in to protect $40 out of your pocket so far. What do you do now? (In my one live game last year I was in this situation. I flopped a King high flush and felt a player UTG was betting a flopped set. I reraised their pot sized bet, they came back all in. The board never paired, I won. Odds were not favorable for them to call my bet, so they shoved back. Odds were slightly in my favor to stay ahead. How do you measure variance here copared to the next time they flop a set and win or lose?
Do not get caught up using tools to replace your gut. Do not call just beacuse of the odds, someone may be milking the pot, you are already drawing dead. If you feel that, then let them have the pot. If you flopped a flush and someone pushed all-in for 5x the pot, know they probably have a set or 2 pair. Regardless of the odds you can not muck here, just because you do not have the right pots odds, correct?
If you are maximum your winnings and limiting your loses, and you can see that you are, then avoid looking at variance - something that is not really that trackable IMHO.
Monday, January 14, 2008
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Betting the Nutz.
It is not that often that you flop (or turn) a great hand and also get paid off. I am talking flopping a full house or quads for the most part, maybe even a straight flush. By the turn you know if you have the absolute nuts with these hands. Hands like a set, the top of a straight, or a flush are great, but can be cracked on the river, you can never say for sure they are safe on the turn.
Betting the absolute nutz, before the river, takes some skill. You can not do this on a very tight table. You need to have a player or two in the hand that see value in chasing, that you know live to chase. Also helps to have someone that is either trying to get even with you and/or that thinks you over bet your hands.
The objective is to bet your high winning percentage hand on the flop the same way you would a very good but beatable hand. Like protecting your set or straight from a flush draw. This is similar to the river shove to induce a call, but works much better as you tend to get players willing to risk more on a chase then on a weak connection after the river.
For example: I had pocket 9's, bet them preflop 3x BB with one caller. The flop was Q 9 9 with 2 clubs. I bet the pot from UTG, the other player tanked then reraised 3x my bet. A this point I have more than I can ask for. If I just smooth call they may come to their senses so I shove back (which is pretty much 2x their raise), of course they call. To my surprise they did not even have a Queen, held Ace something with one club. If I had checked this down to the river, the traditional approach, they would have possibly made one small probe bet then mucked to any pressure on any street.
Always try and figure out, based on the other players in the hand, how can you make the most money every hand you are betting. If someone thinks I am bluffing, I'd rather push with the nutz then with a bluff.
Betting the absolute nutz, before the river, takes some skill. You can not do this on a very tight table. You need to have a player or two in the hand that see value in chasing, that you know live to chase. Also helps to have someone that is either trying to get even with you and/or that thinks you over bet your hands.
The objective is to bet your high winning percentage hand on the flop the same way you would a very good but beatable hand. Like protecting your set or straight from a flush draw. This is similar to the river shove to induce a call, but works much better as you tend to get players willing to risk more on a chase then on a weak connection after the river.
For example: I had pocket 9's, bet them preflop 3x BB with one caller. The flop was Q 9 9 with 2 clubs. I bet the pot from UTG, the other player tanked then reraised 3x my bet. A this point I have more than I can ask for. If I just smooth call they may come to their senses so I shove back (which is pretty much 2x their raise), of course they call. To my surprise they did not even have a Queen, held Ace something with one club. If I had checked this down to the river, the traditional approach, they would have possibly made one small probe bet then mucked to any pressure on any street.
Always try and figure out, based on the other players in the hand, how can you make the most money every hand you are betting. If someone thinks I am bluffing, I'd rather push with the nutz then with a bluff.
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
Nothing up my sleeves.
Poker is all about people being mislead, in one way or another. Sometimes you are not doing this on purpose, others just force themselves to not believe the truth. Sometimes you are the one that refuses to belive the obvious.
The net result is what it is, regardless of how it was performed. Some people focus too much on the path to the result, rather than how they ended up there. It really does not matter if you read the other person's cards right, you also have to read the other person. If you know someone will call any bet to see the river, then you are the one that can control your loses.
Do not mislead yourself, stop allowing other players to be in control. Control your game, if you are out of control then stop and regroup. Keep in mind that if you risk your stack several times a game, the odds are that you will eventually lose your stack no matter how tight you play.
Do not allow others to trap you into risking your stack. Laying down good cards is not a bad thing to do when someone attacks the pot after the flop. So what if they called your big preflop bet and the flop was all low cards. If they attack back, they can have anything from 2 pair to who knows how many outs. Protecting lets say $5 invested against a $50 shove is many times the wrong thing to do. Now if your pocket cards improved on the flop, then go for it. Just do not put yourself into the mindset that you can not lay down your hand, because, that is when you are no longer in control.
Some players know I play a semi-tight agressive game, most think I am very tight agressive. A few think I am a fish, a chaser, a donkey. There are some players, sharks, that target tight players. They prefer the weak tight players, but will take on the agressive ones as well. They will for example call your 10x Bb preflop bet with any 2 cards. Nothing up their sleeves! They pretty much know though when they are ahead of a tight player. They will risk a bit up front, and just muck when they need to. They do not care about playing pocket Aces, anyone can do that. They care about breaking pocket Aces, Kings, etc...
Next time you win a big hand, or lose one, take a step back and make sure you were in control. If you were out of control, ask yourself how you got there. If you can get others out of control, make sure you protect yourself from being mislead the same way.
The net result is what it is, regardless of how it was performed. Some people focus too much on the path to the result, rather than how they ended up there. It really does not matter if you read the other person's cards right, you also have to read the other person. If you know someone will call any bet to see the river, then you are the one that can control your loses.
Do not mislead yourself, stop allowing other players to be in control. Control your game, if you are out of control then stop and regroup. Keep in mind that if you risk your stack several times a game, the odds are that you will eventually lose your stack no matter how tight you play.
Do not allow others to trap you into risking your stack. Laying down good cards is not a bad thing to do when someone attacks the pot after the flop. So what if they called your big preflop bet and the flop was all low cards. If they attack back, they can have anything from 2 pair to who knows how many outs. Protecting lets say $5 invested against a $50 shove is many times the wrong thing to do. Now if your pocket cards improved on the flop, then go for it. Just do not put yourself into the mindset that you can not lay down your hand, because, that is when you are no longer in control.
Some players know I play a semi-tight agressive game, most think I am very tight agressive. A few think I am a fish, a chaser, a donkey. There are some players, sharks, that target tight players. They prefer the weak tight players, but will take on the agressive ones as well. They will for example call your 10x Bb preflop bet with any 2 cards. Nothing up their sleeves! They pretty much know though when they are ahead of a tight player. They will risk a bit up front, and just muck when they need to. They do not care about playing pocket Aces, anyone can do that. They care about breaking pocket Aces, Kings, etc...
Next time you win a big hand, or lose one, take a step back and make sure you were in control. If you were out of control, ask yourself how you got there. If you can get others out of control, make sure you protect yourself from being mislead the same way.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Staying In Control.
HAPPY TURKEY DAY!
My worst opponent is myself. I have a great game plan, it works when I stick to it. Yet I find the fast pace of online play a challenge. The challenge is taking time to think. My cash game is fine at the fast pace, it is my MTT and SNG play that suffers.
I have to come to an understanding with myself. In tournaments, if I am going to play certain hands, I have to be willing to muck them as well. I trap myself with hands like AK suited, pocket Jacks and pocket Queens. My game plan is to play those hands like any other pair, to not risk my tournament life on them if the flop does not help me or is against me. Yet I find myself making quick decisions rather than thinking my post-flop actions out.
Another problem area I have in tournaments is protecting a big chip lead. I can battle my way to the money from mid stack or worse. When I get an early chip lead I lose control, even though I know better. I take shots I should not be even thinking about. One can argue that to win you have to use your chips, I agree. But early on there is no reason to be reckless, no matter how large an early chip lead one has. I still forget this, one more area in my tournament play that I need to get a handle on.
What areas of your game do you not have control over? What are you doing to fix this? If you can not think of any areas, you are lying to yourself. If you know them but do not work on them, you are hurting yourself. You are playing to win, short and long term. Can you adjust your styles and strategy to the game at hand? Can you maintain control?
My worst opponent is myself. I have a great game plan, it works when I stick to it. Yet I find the fast pace of online play a challenge. The challenge is taking time to think. My cash game is fine at the fast pace, it is my MTT and SNG play that suffers.
I have to come to an understanding with myself. In tournaments, if I am going to play certain hands, I have to be willing to muck them as well. I trap myself with hands like AK suited, pocket Jacks and pocket Queens. My game plan is to play those hands like any other pair, to not risk my tournament life on them if the flop does not help me or is against me. Yet I find myself making quick decisions rather than thinking my post-flop actions out.
Another problem area I have in tournaments is protecting a big chip lead. I can battle my way to the money from mid stack or worse. When I get an early chip lead I lose control, even though I know better. I take shots I should not be even thinking about. One can argue that to win you have to use your chips, I agree. But early on there is no reason to be reckless, no matter how large an early chip lead one has. I still forget this, one more area in my tournament play that I need to get a handle on.
What areas of your game do you not have control over? What are you doing to fix this? If you can not think of any areas, you are lying to yourself. If you know them but do not work on them, you are hurting yourself. You are playing to win, short and long term. Can you adjust your styles and strategy to the game at hand? Can you maintain control?
Sunday, November 11, 2007
When you are weak!
Some days you will appear weak to other players at the table. At that point, you will be forced to play TIER I hands and also improve on the flop. Many players will take a loose aggressive (LAG) stance when they think someone at the table is playing scared. You may have made a great lay down or were just playing very LAG yourself and knew you were beat. Whatever caused you to appear weak doesn’t matter now.
If several players are calling most or all of your pre-flop raises, then ask yourself why. What did you do, even if in the past, to make them want to take you on when you raise? Now use that against them. Muck your AK when the flop misses and they attack, they probably called you with any 2 suited or connected cards.
They will attack you when you have the best hand, so why not wait until you flop a big set or better? Then bet like you do when you were preceived to be weak, whatever pattern that was. If the flop is dangerous be aggressive when you can be. It is NOT the best flop when your AK is just TPTK. But when you see a 10 J Q off, with your AK, bet like you would with a under pair. If they just call, watch for a flush draw. Of course they could have a set as well, so they will play back at you. They will attack back though, to try and take the pot down if they think you will fold like you did before or if they think they are protecting their hand. You may lose a few of these hands, that will happen sometimes. But the only way to get their respect, and their money, is to show them you are much smarter than they are.
Can you fold pocket Aces post flop? Can you fold a flopped straight when the board is yelling flush? Do you refrain from chasing a flush against a paired board, especially against TAG players? If you answered NO to these 3 questions, you probably run into a lot of big loses, plus I am sure you have handed out your share of bad beats.
If several players are calling most or all of your pre-flop raises, then ask yourself why. What did you do, even if in the past, to make them want to take you on when you raise? Now use that against them. Muck your AK when the flop misses and they attack, they probably called you with any 2 suited or connected cards.
They will attack you when you have the best hand, so why not wait until you flop a big set or better? Then bet like you do when you were preceived to be weak, whatever pattern that was. If the flop is dangerous be aggressive when you can be. It is NOT the best flop when your AK is just TPTK. But when you see a 10 J Q off, with your AK, bet like you would with a under pair. If they just call, watch for a flush draw. Of course they could have a set as well, so they will play back at you. They will attack back though, to try and take the pot down if they think you will fold like you did before or if they think they are protecting their hand. You may lose a few of these hands, that will happen sometimes. But the only way to get their respect, and their money, is to show them you are much smarter than they are.
Can you fold pocket Aces post flop? Can you fold a flopped straight when the board is yelling flush? Do you refrain from chasing a flush against a paired board, especially against TAG players? If you answered NO to these 3 questions, you probably run into a lot of big loses, plus I am sure you have handed out your share of bad beats.
Friday, November 2, 2007
Earn 30% Rakeback
UPDATE: If you choose this program you can take advantage of any offered sign-up bonus, but you can NOT take advantage of future reload bonuses. If you play a lot, you will make much more off of rakeback. If you do not play much, and like to bonus whore, then try the carbonpoker.com link to take advantage future reload bonus offers.
I found one of the members of the Merge Network has a promotion where you can earn your own rakeback. If you already play on poker.com or carbonpoker.com, then pokernordica.com is part of your network. You can start a new account there, just never log on to one of your other accounts at the same time.
You have to use the link on my page here for this to work, you can not get this on your own. If you do not care about rake, you can just use the link for carbonpoker.com. Either way, both sites offer great deposit bonuses. Their freerolls are also very good.
I found one of the members of the Merge Network has a promotion where you can earn your own rakeback. If you already play on poker.com or carbonpoker.com, then pokernordica.com is part of your network. You can start a new account there, just never log on to one of your other accounts at the same time.
You have to use the link on my page here for this to work, you can not get this on your own. If you do not care about rake, you can just use the link for carbonpoker.com. Either way, both sites offer great deposit bonuses. Their freerolls are also very good.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
If you can't read your opponents, find some you can.
The great thing about online poker is you can pick up and move when you want, as often as you want. Some players will attack weakness, representing hands very well. Once you let them in your mind, you are probably not going to out play them.
For example, I flopped a FH with pocket Jacks in a board of J,Q,Q rainbow. I was very sure the only person that would stay in the hand would have to have a Queen so I value bet with one caller. Then another Queen hits the board. I am pretty much dead to Kings, Aces and of course a Queen. I checked the turn, the river gives the board an 8. The other player in the hand reraised my value bet 2.5x and I mucked.
Later a few players took advantage of this by attacking me when they were connected, but maybe not the best hand. Do I dare call and see they had a set to my TPTK, or do I wait for the right flops to move on with. Case in point. I see a flop of 10, 7, 7 sith 2 spades. I have A 10 off and check. One other player bets the pot of $1.30, so I reraise to $2.60. He comes back over the top for $7.80. I want to call, but if he has 2 spades I do not like the race. He shows his K,10 off letting me know he has my number.
Now I have to decide to find another table, or to wait it out and set these guys up. I decided to wait it out, I have done this before. I am still showing reluctance to call a big raise, at the same time representing hands while putting very little money in the pot. This keeps them secure in attacking me to steal my money, while I am actually slowly earning my money back when they do not attack my good hands.
The times I do not start winning my money back, I will move on and find another table. No use staying at a table chasing your money. At a new table you can start with a new perspective, a new image as well. And if the cards there are dead, or you just cannot get good reads, then there is always another table open somewhere.
For example, I flopped a FH with pocket Jacks in a board of J,Q,Q rainbow. I was very sure the only person that would stay in the hand would have to have a Queen so I value bet with one caller. Then another Queen hits the board. I am pretty much dead to Kings, Aces and of course a Queen. I checked the turn, the river gives the board an 8. The other player in the hand reraised my value bet 2.5x and I mucked.
Later a few players took advantage of this by attacking me when they were connected, but maybe not the best hand. Do I dare call and see they had a set to my TPTK, or do I wait for the right flops to move on with. Case in point. I see a flop of 10, 7, 7 sith 2 spades. I have A 10 off and check. One other player bets the pot of $1.30, so I reraise to $2.60. He comes back over the top for $7.80. I want to call, but if he has 2 spades I do not like the race. He shows his K,10 off letting me know he has my number.
Now I have to decide to find another table, or to wait it out and set these guys up. I decided to wait it out, I have done this before. I am still showing reluctance to call a big raise, at the same time representing hands while putting very little money in the pot. This keeps them secure in attacking me to steal my money, while I am actually slowly earning my money back when they do not attack my good hands.
The times I do not start winning my money back, I will move on and find another table. No use staying at a table chasing your money. At a new table you can start with a new perspective, a new image as well. And if the cards there are dead, or you just cannot get good reads, then there is always another table open somewhere.
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