With online poker, sometimes it is best to move on after you have reached your goal at a table. Even if the table is full of ATM's, why give them a shot at winning all their losses back? Sometimes I have reached my goal quickly, thus in my mind I tell myself to stay and keep taking advantage of the ATM's. Then before I know it I have lost 1/2 my winnings back. If I had listened to my goal, I would have moved on to a new table and banked my winnings.
When the flop just makes you flinch, learn to not trap yourself. Listen to your instincts. I will not chase a straight into a flush chase for example, or the bottom end of a straight into the top (like holding 9 10 on a J Q x flop). Why hit the straight (or bottom of the straight) and have someone either push all in or bet 1/2 the pot? You are calling 1/2 the pot, and most bad players are calling the all in hoping it was a bluff or bad bet.
I just ran through a streak that all but crippled the few dollars I had left online. For example, I turned a Ace high flush then the river pairs the board, yep the other player had 2 pair and hit their FH. Within 10 hands I run into another FH, and within 2 more rounds quads. The day before, on a different site, I ran into trips about 4 times in an hour. Each time I had a high pair and the other player called my preflop raises. One time the other player called with something like 6 10 suited and the board flopped a pair of sixes. The other times my monsters were cracked by low pairs. In cash games I love to see the flop with a pocket pair. And I guess I ctach a set the usual 12% or so of the time. So to see other players hitting their sets left and right, against me, was a real let down.
Playing online can be real frustrating. The game is fast, and so easy to participate in.
I plan to lay low for a while and play some live poker in September.
Saturday, August 11, 2007
Friday, August 3, 2007
What are the Odds!?!
Slow playing a great flop is not always the right move. I used to think it was for certain hands. Like flopping a flush holding the Ace/x suited for example. Problem is, someone with two-pair or a set may be lurking. They will call a value bet, may even attack the pot hoping no one has the flush yet, trying to get rid of any chasers. Then comes flopping a straight, just to see an outer outer flush or FH take over, maybe even someone connect to a higher straight.
The odds of something happening are not affected by previous results. Just like flipping coins, just because a coin lands on tails does not mean the odds it lands on tails the next time have changed. If someone cracks your pocket Aces, that does not mean the next 9 times you hold them they can not lose.
Start looking at the odds that the quality of the players affect. For example, at a loose table the odds are several players are calling raised pots pre-flop. This means the odds are your pocket cards need to improve to stay ahead. The odds are that someone is going to ride the pot. The odds are someone is going to bluff the river and represent. On a tight table, the odds are you have to mask your strong hands to make a profit. The odds are you will have to fold more often with just TPTK and wait for a better hand to make a profit.
In either case, the odds I am looking at have to do with the players, not just my cards. For example, on a tight table you may be able to represent an Ace on the flop and get players with botom or middle pairs to fold. On a loose table, someone with any flopped pair is going to call you down to the river, and even a river bet if the pot is big enough. You cannot bluff bad players, so play the players and not your cards all the time.
The reverse is simple, make those bad players pay off. I flopped quads and knew a bad player, on the button, would bet the pot if everyone checked. They bet, and I called in late position with 2 other callers. The turn was great, someone had to have hit a straight and possibly a flush. I checked and the button checked. I bet 1/2 the pot on the river, the button raised, the other 2 players folded. I re-raised back, and amazingly he pushes all in. He had a weak flush, two middle cards, never even had a straight flush draw to fall back on. Nine out of ten times hands like that do not pay off.
The odds of something happening are not affected by previous results. Just like flipping coins, just because a coin lands on tails does not mean the odds it lands on tails the next time have changed. If someone cracks your pocket Aces, that does not mean the next 9 times you hold them they can not lose.
Start looking at the odds that the quality of the players affect. For example, at a loose table the odds are several players are calling raised pots pre-flop. This means the odds are your pocket cards need to improve to stay ahead. The odds are that someone is going to ride the pot. The odds are someone is going to bluff the river and represent. On a tight table, the odds are you have to mask your strong hands to make a profit. The odds are you will have to fold more often with just TPTK and wait for a better hand to make a profit.
In either case, the odds I am looking at have to do with the players, not just my cards. For example, on a tight table you may be able to represent an Ace on the flop and get players with botom or middle pairs to fold. On a loose table, someone with any flopped pair is going to call you down to the river, and even a river bet if the pot is big enough. You cannot bluff bad players, so play the players and not your cards all the time.
The reverse is simple, make those bad players pay off. I flopped quads and knew a bad player, on the button, would bet the pot if everyone checked. They bet, and I called in late position with 2 other callers. The turn was great, someone had to have hit a straight and possibly a flush. I checked and the button checked. I bet 1/2 the pot on the river, the button raised, the other 2 players folded. I re-raised back, and amazingly he pushes all in. He had a weak flush, two middle cards, never even had a straight flush draw to fall back on. Nine out of ten times hands like that do not pay off.
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