What are the Odds!?!

Slow playing a great flop is not always the right move. I used to think it was for certain hands. Like flopping a flush holding the Ace/x suited for example. Problem is, someone with two-pair or a set may be lurking. They will call a value bet, may even attack the pot hoping no one has the flush yet, trying to get rid of any chasers. Then comes flopping a straight, just to see an outer outer flush or FH take over, maybe even someone connect to a higher straight.

The odds of something happening are not affected by previous results. Just like flipping coins, just because a coin lands on tails does not mean the odds it lands on tails the next time have changed. If someone cracks your pocket Aces, that does not mean the next 9 times you hold them they can not lose.

Start looking at the odds that the quality of the players affect. For example, at a loose table the odds are several players are calling raised pots pre-flop. This means the odds are your pocket cards need to improve to stay ahead. The odds are that someone is going to ride the pot. The odds are someone is going to bluff the river and represent. On a tight table, the odds are you have to mask your strong hands to make a profit. The odds are you will have to fold more often with just TPTK and wait for a better hand to make a profit.

In either case, the odds I am looking at have to do with the players, not just my cards. For example, on a tight table you may be able to represent an Ace on the flop and get players with botom or middle pairs to fold. On a loose table, someone with any flopped pair is going to call you down to the river, and even a river bet if the pot is big enough. You cannot bluff bad players, so play the players and not your cards all the time.

The reverse is simple, make those bad players pay off. I flopped quads and knew a bad player, on the button, would bet the pot if everyone checked. They bet, and I called in late position with 2 other callers. The turn was great, someone had to have hit a straight and possibly a flush. I checked and the button checked. I bet 1/2 the pot on the river, the button raised, the other 2 players folded. I re-raised back, and amazingly he pushes all in. He had a weak flush, two middle cards, never even had a straight flush draw to fall back on. Nine out of ten times hands like that do not pay off.