Variance and Odds.

I do not believe that you can realistically measure variance in your poker play. You can track it, but can you really measure it? Tracking systems do not take emotional factors into place. They also do not distinguish between your bad decisions verus good ones, bad beats you put on others versus being put on you.

A good example is pocket Aces. Let's say you find it hard to fold them post flop. A tight passive (TP) player loses a lot with pocket Aces, or does not maximize thier winnings. A good tight agressive (TAG) player will lose less with them, and maximize their winnings. The TP player will not protect their hand post flop and end up in many situations with multiple players seeing the flop and cracking Aces. The TAG player will isolate and defend their Aces, possibly going all-in preflop based on their read of the table.

Either style of play, when the flop hits, some players will know when to muck their Aces while most will play them no matter what is going on. This is where variance can not tell you much. Since most players mix their game up, a tracker can not compensate for an individual's variance in play.

Another factor is the environment. Someone playing at online micro levels may have developed a style of play that at live cash levels is nothing but losing play. You get caught up in the fact that online you can limit your loses to $10, $25, $50 etc.. Then you move up online or live and there you sit with $300 in front of you. Or a live $1/$2 player moves up to $3/$6 and has 3x their normal buy-in to deal with.

This brings me to odds. On micro tables odds are meaningless. Let's be realistic here, you have $25 in front of you. You bet or call $2 to see a flop with pocket Queens and you hit a set on the flop. There s a flush chase out there, a possible straight as well could already have hit. But you hit a set, and you value bet it. Someone raises, heck a player in the middle smooth calls. At this point, do you muck when on the turn someone pushes all in for 3x the pot? Probably not, you do not have a lot to risk. But lets go to a $300 buy-in and you put $15 into the pot pre-flop. Next thing you know someone on the turn is forcing you all in to protect $40 out of your pocket so far. What do you do now? (In my one live game last year I was in this situation. I flopped a King high flush and felt a player UTG was betting a flopped set. I reraised their pot sized bet, they came back all in. The board never paired, I won. Odds were not favorable for them to call my bet, so they shoved back. Odds were slightly in my favor to stay ahead. How do you measure variance here copared to the next time they flop a set and win or lose?

Do not get caught up using tools to replace your gut. Do not call just beacuse of the odds, someone may be milking the pot, you are already drawing dead. If you feel that, then let them have the pot. If you flopped a flush and someone pushed all-in for 5x the pot, know they probably have a set or 2 pair. Regardless of the odds you can not muck here, just because you do not have the right pots odds, correct?

If you are maximum your winnings and limiting your loses, and you can see that you are, then avoid looking at variance - something that is not really that trackable IMHO.